In January 2013, TheMMA-Analysis published an article about “homefield advantage” for Brazilian fighters fighting in their home country against fighters from other countries around the world. At the time of that publication, Brazilians had won over 77% of those fights dating back to UFC 134. Furthermore, Brazilian favorites were 18-3 in that same time frame for an astonishing 86% win percentage.
Moving forward from our original article, there were an additional 7 Brazil vs. The World fights on January’s UFC on Fuel 7 Fight Card. The results of those fights saw the following:
UFC on Fuel TV 7: Brazil vs. World Results
• Brazilian fighters fighting on home soil had a 4-3 record against fighters from other countries
• Brazilian favorites went 4-2, while Brazilian underdogs went 0-1
• Largest international underdog to hit was CB Dolloway (+130)
• A bet on all Brazilian favorites (Risk X to win 1 unit) netted a profit of .25 units
• A bet on Brazilian underdogs saw a net loss of 1 unit
• Of the 7 fights, 3 ended in a decision, 2 ended by KO, and 2 ended in a submission
While the results were not as significantly in Brazilian fighters favor on the last card, the trend did continue overall for the Brazilian fighters. Of the five fight cards to take place in Brazil during the UFC’s modern era, all five cards have seen Brazilians win at a minimum 50% of the fights. The largest international underdog to win was Stanislav Nedkov at +220.
With that said, here are the Brazil vs. The World Matchups on the May 18th UFC on FX 8 card:
UFC on FX 8: Brazil vs The World Matchups
This is the largest amount of Brazil vs. The World fights there has ever been on a UFC card with 10 bouts fitting the profile. Of those 10 fights, Brazilians are favored in 8 of those bouts. In the two bouts where Brazilians are underdogs , Vitor Belfort is +105 and Hacran Dias is +110, so nearly a pickem in both of those fights.
If results for Saturday’s fights hold true to form, Chris Camozzi, Jeremy Larsen, and Mike Rio are in for a long night. All three of these fighters are greater than +220 underdogs. No underdog above that number has ever won on Brazilian soil in the UFC. A parlay of the their three Brazilian opponents: Ronaldo Souza, Lucas Martins, and Francisco Trinaldo pays (as of publication) +106. A plus money wager to continue this trend is certainly intriguing.
In our analysis, Brazilians have won 25 of 34 fights that we have tracked for a winning percentage of 74%. If results hold true, expect Brazilians to win 7 or 8 of these 10 bouts. Brazilians tend to win roughly 50% of their matches when priced as an underdog, with two small underdogs on Saturday’s card, expect either Vitor Belfort or Hacran Dias to get the win.
As for fighters outside of Brazil, there should be 1 or 2 underdog winners on this card. The non-Brazilians have had their most success in fights where they are priced in the +120 to +140 range. In short, small underdogs that have been larger than their opponents that have a wrestling advantage or capable of preventing takedowns. Both Chris Cariaso and Azamat Gashimov are close to that price range and have a size advantage in their respective bouts against Jussier Formiga and John Lineker. Look for either the American or the Russian to win on Saturday.
Saturday’s large fight card should be really telling to show just how significant the Brazilian advantage is. The event takes place at a new venue with a lot of fighters fighting in the UFC for the first time on Brazilan soil. Brazil is no longer a novelty location, so the idea of strategic matchups just so Brazilians are winners should no longer be in question. Saturday’s fights should give us the clearest picture to if there truly is a home octagon advantage for Brazilians.
Brazil vs The World: Full Result Chart